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Graham Brady: 'Never mind Brexit, we need more runways'
While politicians debate our membership of the EU, the case for runway capacity is almost universally accepted
y Graham Brady MP
7:02PM GMT 14 Feb 2016
The opening salvoes have been fired. With an EU referendum expected this June, people on either side are marshalling arguments and preparing campaigns.
Bits of information and misinformation are already flying overhead. Some of us will stand firm, convinced that the UK, the world’s fifth-biggest economy can thrive and prosper as an independent democracy. Others are sniffing the air and trying to divine whether Brexit would be good or bad for business.
Meanwhile, whether we are making our own trade deals or remain subject to those drawn up in Brussels, there are some inescapable facts about our future as a trading nation.
"Heathrow, our only international hub, has been full for a decade. Gatwick, our second-busiest airport, will be full by 2020"
We speak the world’s business language. We have some of the best universities. We win more Nobel prizes per head of population than almost any other nation. Our common law system provides the best climate for business to flourish. So many priceless advantages.
But we will not succeed if we cut ourselves off from the world.
The benefits or costs of leaving the EU will be debated ad nauseam, but the pressing case for increased runway capacity is almost universally accepted. A proper gateway for commerce and exports is of national importance to securing jobs, growth and long-term prosperity. In or out of the EU, if we can’t get our goods to market we will face a dismal future.
As a Conservative, I remember the excitement of the election exit poll last summer, the realisation that voters had returned a Conservative government for the first time in 23 years. Majority government would allow us to make bold but sometimes difficult decisions that we believe are right for Britain, unimpeded by coalition. I remember too, the disappointment when the Government chose to procrastinate over where to build a new runway.
Of course it’s a difficult decision, that’s why governments have flunked it for 50 years.
Heathrow, our only international hub, has been full for a decade. Gatwick, our second-busiest airport, will be full by 2020 and without urgent action, London’s other major airports are likely to be full by the middle of the next decade.
The Airports Commission recommended a new runway, with measures to mitigate the environmental impact. Measures included a ban on night flights, guarantees on local air quality, an independent aviation noise authority and a £1bn community fund. The commission recommended Heathrow, but this decision is about more than where you place a few thousand metres of concrete.
Britain trades up to 20 times more with those countries with which we have a direct air link. Forty per cent of all UK exports go by air, and over a quarter of our exports go via Heathrow.
So the issue is whether we push forward and expand our trade with emerging economies, such as India, China and Brazil (even China’s “new normal” will generate a massive new middle class looking to buy British goods) – or endlessly delay an extra runway and limit our opportunities.
"While EU trade has dwindled, there is one thing that our European neighbours are good at: building new runways. Paris and Frankfurt each have four runways, while Amsterdam boasts six."
The global economy has been undergoing a dramatic shift from West to East. By the middle of the next decade emerging markets will account for over half of all global growth.
Given this shift in economic fortunes, strengthening Britain’s links with these emerging markets is becoming more important to future business than our links with low-growth Europe.
The amount that Britain trades with the EU has for some time now been in decline. In 1999, 55pc of our trade was with EU countries and 45pc with non EU countries, there has been a complete reversal: 55pc of our trade is now with countries outside the EU.
Yet while EU trade has dwindled, there is one thing that our European neighbours are good at: building new runways. Paris and Frankfurt each have four runways, while Amsterdam boasts six. Here, Heathrow still only has the two full-length runways it had when it opened 70 years ago using tents as terminals.
Paris has twice London’s tally of flights to mainland China, while Frankfurt has double the number of flights to Brazil. While we have dithered, both France and Germany understood the strategic importance of improving connectivity with new markets.
For a recent visit to Hong Kong, I flew from a congested Heathrow. Flying from Terminal 5 there’s no doubt that the facilities have come on leaps and bounds. But it is constrained by its modest two runways.
It is routine to taxi for half an hour waiting to take off, and returning passengers expect to circle in the clouds above west London waiting for a landing slot. Hong Kong on the other hand is wasting no time in getting a third runway built – due in seven years’ time.
It is painful to contrast this with the UK, where we’ve spent three years and £20m on a commission, only for the Government to defer a decision yet again. If they do give the green light later this year, we’ll be lucky to see a new runway operating in 10 years. The Transport Secretary now only commits to completion by 2030. Progress is glacial.
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Ministers say the latest delay is because they want to do more environmental analysis to ensure their case is legally watertight. Let’s hope so.
So, when you hear any politician in the coming months claiming that Brexit would be bad for jobs and business, ask him first what he has done to open up the air transport corridors on which our future prosperity really depends. I hope that the British people will have the self-confidence to vote for independence in June – if so, let’s also end 50 years of dither and delay, let’s get on with the new runway capacity that we know we need. What better symbol could there be of our great future as a global trading nation?
Graham Brady MP is chairman of the 1922 Committee